ALT/FNDATA · Alternative Assets
Q1 2026 Report: The Secondary Market for Luxury Watches — An Alternative-Asset Brief
Auction-realized prices and the public-market backdrop
A cycle that appears to be troughing: watch exports turned positive, the listed houses re-rated, and like-for-like auction values held — consistent with a cycle turning rather than contracting.
The headline
The correction in three numbers
+1.4%
Swiss watch exports, Q1 YoY
The first positive quarter after a prolonged decline — the worst looks over
Flat→up
Like-for-like auction value
Stable at houses tracked in both quarters (+22% capital); the gross drop is a coverage shift
$45,204
Top lot — a Cartier Tank
Blue-chips set the ceiling; a deep base of vintage and unbranded sets the floor
Auction-realized prices — what watches actually sold for at the hammer, not asking prices. · 10M+ auction results · 100+ houses.
Key findings
What the quarter told us
- The cycle appears to be turning: Swiss exports rose +1.4% (the first positive quarter after a prolonged decline), US tariffs were cut 39%→15%, and the listed houses re-rated — Swatch ~+20% YTD, Richemont near a one-year high.
- Auction values held on a like-for-like basis (+22% at houses tracked in both quarters); the −91% gross figure is a coverage artifact rather than a market move. The signal is stabilization.
- Blue-chips constitute the investable tier: Cartier, Patek and Rolex set the ceiling (top lots $45,204 and $43,487) over a deep vintage/unbranded base that provides liquidity below.
- Margin pressure feeds the secondary market: a strong franc and gold up ~65–70% since early 2025 lifted 2025 retail prices (Patek ~+22%); the retail-versus-secondary spread is the arbitrage.
- For allocators, Q1 reads as a troughing signal — exports, equities and like-for-like auction values all turning up together after a multi-year downturn.
Year-over-year
Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026
Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026 — sold luxury-watch lots at auction (like-for-like = houses present in both quarters)
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sold auction lots | 2,536 | 1,386 | −45% |
| Like-for-like lots | 1,375 | 1,363 | −1% |
| Total value (USD) | $17.5M | $1.58M | −91%* |
| Like-for-like value | $1.30M | $1.58M | +22% |
The outlook
Three trends that will define the year
A cycle troughing
Exports positive, equities re-rated, like-for-like auction values up: the leading indicators turned together in Q1. For investors, this is consistent with a trough rather than a contraction.
Blue-chip exposure
Capital concentrates in safe-haven references — Cartier, Patek, Rolex. These constitute the investable tier; the vintage/unbranded base provides the market's liquidity and floor.
The retail-vs-secondary arbitrage
Strong-franc, high-gold cost pressure pushed 2025 primary prices higher; with tariffs now eased to 15%, the spread between retail and the auction block is what disciplined buyers are capturing.
“For investors, the read is a cycle troughing: exports positive, equities re-rated, like-for-like auction values up — with blue-chip references the cleanest exposure.”
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The public statistics are free to cite. The full report is the analyst's cut — the export/equity/currency backdrop, the like-for-like read, the blue-chip ceiling, and the methodology (with a transparent coverage note).
- The full month-by-month auction breakdown (January → March)
- The macro backdrop — Swiss exports, tariffs, the franc, Swatch & Richemont
- Brands & the blue-chip ceiling vs. the unbranded base
- Methodology, including a transparent note on coverage
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Source: ALT/FNDATA, “Q1 2026 Report: The Secondary Market for Luxury Watches — An Alternative-Asset Brief” (June 2026). Based on auction-realized prices for wristwatches and pocket watches cleared at the auction houses ALT/FNDATA tracks, with public-market context from Q1 2026 Swiss watch exports and watch-house equity performance. © 2026 ALT/FNDATA · altfndata.com/reports/luxury-watch-market-report-q1-2026