ALT/FNDATA · Market Report
Q1 2026 Report: The Secondary Market for Luxury Watches
Auction-realized prices and the public-market backdrop
A stabilizing market: at the houses tracked in both quarters, auction values held flat-to-up — as Swiss exports returned to growth and the listed watch houses rallied on the view that the cycle had troughed.
The headline
The correction in three numbers
+1.4%
Swiss watch exports, Q1 YoY
The first positive quarter after a prolonged decline — the worst looks over
Flat→up
Like-for-like auction value
Stable at houses tracked in both quarters (+22% capital); the gross drop is a coverage shift
$45,204
Top lot — a Cartier Tank
Blue-chips set the ceiling; a deep base of vintage and unbranded sets the floor
Auction-realized prices — what watches actually sold for at the hammer, not asking prices. · 10M+ auction results · 100+ houses.
Key findings
What the quarter told us
- The cycle appears to be troughing: Swiss watch exports returned to growth in Q1 2026 (+1.4% YoY, the first positive quarter after a prolonged decline), and the listed watch houses rallied — Swatch up ~20% year-to-date, Richemont near a one-year high — on the view that the downturn had run its course.
- At auction, the market was stable rather than contracting: among the houses tracked in both quarters, value was flat-to-up (+22%). The headline −91% gross decline is a coverage artifact — the major houses (Phillips, Sotheby’s, Bonhams, Loupe This) recorded Q1 2025 watch sales that do not fall within the Q1 2026 window.
- Blue-chips set the ceiling and vintage sets the floor: the top lots were a Cartier Tank ($45,204) and a Patek Philippe Calatrava ($43,487); branded and unbranded lots divided the quarter’s volume approximately evenly.
- March led the quarter ($0.84M of the $1.58M), with the European mid-market houses — Millon, Rossini, Webb’s, Ka-Mondo — accounting for the activity rather than the marquee names.
- The macro backdrop turned supportive: US tariffs on Swiss watches were cut from 39% to 15%, even as a strong franc and gold up ~65–70% since early 2025 compressed makers’ margins and lifted 2025 retail prices (Patek ~+22% across 2025, partly reversed by a US cut in 2026).
- Demand favored classic, wearable references — Cartier, Rolex, Patek, Audemars Piguet, Omega — over speculative modern steel; the safe-haven brands anchored the top of every sale across the quarter.
Year-over-year
Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026
Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026 — sold luxury-watch lots at auction (like-for-like = houses present in both quarters)
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sold auction lots | 2,536 | 1,386 | −45% |
| Like-for-like lots | 1,375 | 1,363 | −1% |
| Total value (USD) | $17.5M | $1.58M | −91%* |
| Like-for-like value | $1.30M | $1.58M | +22% |
The outlook
Three trends that will define the year
The cycle appears to be troughing
Exports back to growth, the listed houses rallying, and like-for-like auction values flat-to-up: the data points to stabilization after a multi-year watch downturn. For collectors, the cycle appears to be troughing — and the safe-haven references held throughout.
Blue-chip gravity
Capital concentrates in safe-haven references — Cartier, Patek Philippe, Rolex — at the top, while a deep base of vintage and unbranded lots clears the volume. The ceiling is branded; the floor is broad and resilient.
Margins vs. the secondary market
A strong franc, gold up ~65–70%, and tariff volatility pushed primary retail prices higher through 2025; with US tariffs now eased to 15%, the spread between retail and the secondary market is precisely what auction bidders are arbitraging.
“After a multi-year downturn, the watch market is stabilizing rather than contracting. The blue-chips continue to set the ceiling, and the cycle appears to be troughing.”
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- The full month-by-month auction breakdown (January → March)
- The macro backdrop — Swiss exports, tariffs, the franc, Swatch & Richemont
- Brands & the blue-chip ceiling vs. the unbranded base
- Methodology, including a transparent note on coverage
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Source: ALT/FNDATA, “Q1 2026 Report: The Secondary Market for Luxury Watches” (June 2026). Based on auction-realized prices for wristwatches and pocket watches cleared at the auction houses ALT/FNDATA tracks, with public-market context from Q1 2026 Swiss watch exports and watch-house equity performance. © 2026 ALT/FNDATA · altfndata.com/reports/luxury-watch-market-report-q1-2026