ALT/FNDATA · Market Report
Q4 2025 Report: The Secondary Market for Luxury Watches
Auction-realized prices and the public-market backdrop
A leaner, top-heavy quarter carried by the Geneva sales: fewer lots cleared but the high end held, even as a US tariff that had halved Swiss exports to America was cut from 39% to 15% in November and shipments rebounded by December.
The headline
The correction in three numbers
$151.9M
Q4 2025 auction value
Across 3,556 sold lots; −23% gross and −11% like-for-like vs 2024
$10.8M
Top lot at Phillips Geneva
The December Geneva sales set the quarter; +29% on the 2024 top
87%
Phillips' share of value
$132.8M of $151.9M, concentrated in the Geneva auctions
Auction-realized prices: what watches actually sold for at the hammer, not asking prices. · 10M+ auction results · 100+ houses.
Key findings
What the quarter told us
- A leaner, top-heavy quarter: Q4 2025 cleared $151.9M across 3,556 sold lots. Gross value fell 23% year over year and the lot count 46%, but on a like-for-like basis value held far better, down 11%, as fewer but higher-value lots cleared.
- The Geneva November and December sales were the quarter. Phillips alone cleared $132.8M, roughly 87% of the total, concentrated in its Geneva auctions; November ($70.5M) and December ($76.6M) carried almost all of the value.
- The top end was resilient. The quarter's top lot, a complicated piece at Phillips, realized approximately $10.8M, around 29% above the 2024 top, and the Patek Philippe and complicated watches that anchor the Geneva sales held their bids.
- Below the marquee names the market was thin. Outside Phillips, Antiquorum ($8.1M) and Bonhams ($7.5M) led a long tail of European mid-market houses clearing modest value.
- The macro backdrop turned supportive late. In mid-November the United States and Switzerland agreed to cut tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, and Swiss watch exports to the US, which had fallen roughly 47% in October and 52% in November under the tariff, rebounded to +19% in December as shipments resumed at the new rate.
- The listed houses rallied. Richemont rose approximately 14% in the quarter and LVMH about 24% on stabilization and tariff relief, even as gold, up roughly 65% across 2025 to records above $4,000, kept pressure on makers' margins and lifted the intrinsic floor beneath precious-metal pieces.
Year-over-year
Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2025
Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2025: sold luxury-watch lots at auction (like-for-like = the 13 houses present in both quarters)
| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sold auction lots | 6,615 | 3,556 | −46% |
| Like-for-like lots | 5,173 | 2,956 | −43% |
| Total value (USD) | $196.7M | $151.9M | −23% |
| Like-for-like value | $169.4M | $150.8M | −11% |
| Top marquee lot | $8.4M | $10.8M | +29% |
The divergence
The US tariff on Swiss goods drove watch exports to America down roughly half through October and November; the mid-November cut from 39% to 15% reversed the move, and December exports to the US rose 19% as shipments resumed. The secondary market sat downstream of a policy shock that resolved within the quarter.
Source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) monthly export data.
The outlook
Three trends that will define the year
The high end carries the quarter
Value concentrates in the Geneva complications and blue-chip Patek at Phillips, while volume thins across the mid-market. The ceiling holds even as the base recedes, the like-for-like value down only 11% against a 43% fall in lots.
Tariffs whipsawed the cycle
The US tariff drove Swiss watch exports to America sharply lower through the autumn before the 39% to 15% cut reversed the move by December. The secondary market sat downstream of a policy shock that resolved within the quarter.
Gold reshapes the floor
With gold up roughly 65% on the year to records above $4,000, precious-metal references repriced upward at retail, widening the gap that draws bidders to the secondary market and lifting the melt-value floor beneath the most exotic pieces.
“A leaner quarter, but not a weaker top: Phillips and the Geneva sales carried almost all of the value, the high end held, and a punitive tariff was cut just as the year closed.”
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Read the full report
The headline data above is free to cite. The full report is part of ALT/FNDATA Membership, which includes every quarterly market report and the Visual Analytics Hub. Inside this report:
- The full month-by-month auction breakdown (October to December)
- The macro backdrop: Swiss exports, the 39% to 15% tariff cut, gold and the equities
- The Geneva sales and the blue-chip ceiling
- Methodology and how to cite the data
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Source: ALT/FNDATA, “Q4 2025 Report: The Secondary Market for Luxury Watches” (June 2026). Based on auction-realized prices for wristwatches and pocket watches cleared at the auction houses ALT/FNDATA tracks, with public-market context from Q4 2025 Swiss watch exports and watch-house equity performance. © 2026 ALT/FNDATA · altfndata.com/reports/luxury-watch-market-report-q4-2025