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Your morning briefing on the luxury and collectibles markets. Today: Bain trims its 2026 luxury forecast after a rough first half, but the very top of the market keeps setting records; London's art season roars back with a second big collection sale in a week; luxury money shifts toward experiences and "inheritourism"; and new arrivals from Rolex and Porsche.
Good morning. It's Friday, June 26. I'm Sharon, and this is Open Bid from ALT/FNDATA.
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Today: Bain trims its forecast for the luxury market, but the very top is still booming. London's art season roars back to life, the rise of experiences and what CNBC calls "inheritourism," and new arrivals from Rolex and Porsche. Plus Closing Price wraps the week tonight.
We begin with the most closely watched number in luxury. Bain and Company, with the Italian trade group Altagamma, released its mid-year report this week, and it trimmed the outlook. Bain now expects the personal luxury goods market to grow just 2 to 4 percent this year, a more cautious call than before, after a punishing first half: the Middle East conflict that spiked oil prices, US inflation at its highest in years, consumer confidence at record lows, and the European Central Bank's first interest-rate hike since 2023.
But step past the headline, and you find the split this show keeps returning to. Bain's caution is about the broad market, the entry-level handbag and the aspirational shopper. The very top is another story altogether. This week alone, a single Modigliani sold for 63.9 million dollars in London, and in our own data the year's top results, a 25.6 million dollar jade necklace, along with Ferraris and watches clearing eight figures, keep climbing. The middle of the market is what's wobbling. The top has rarely looked stronger.
That strength is reviving a London art season that began in a funk. After the record-breaking Lewis Collection sale we covered yesterday, Christie's has now quietly sold around 100 works from the collection of the Zabludowicz family for some 20 million dollars. Two major single-owner collections coming to market in a single week, and both finding buyers, is a strong signal that confidence has returned to the top of the art trade, at least here in London.
And here is where that luxury money is increasingly going: not to things, but to experiences. According to CNBC, luxury goods face only low single-digit growth this year, while spending on experiences, from travel to events to dining, is set to grow 3 to 7 percent. Cruises in particular are pulling in first-time buyers. CNBC points to a trend it calls "inheritourism": wealthy families traveling together, as a younger, inheriting generation adopts its parents' taste for travel over status symbols. It is the same story Bain is telling, from a different angle. The market for buying things is maturing, while the market for doing things is not.
Two quick arrivals to note. Rolex has opened what it bills as the world's highest watch boutique, high in the Swiss Alps. And Porsche unveiled its first GT4 race car built on the 911, aimed squarely at the track-day crowd and gentleman racers.
Finally, the markets, limping to the finish of a wild week. After days of a tech selloff and then a luxury rebound, the European luxury names opened quietly mixed this morning, most of them little changed. LVMH slipped about 0.4 percent and Watches of Switzerland about 1.3 percent, while the standout, again, was the Danish jeweler Pandora, up another 3 percent. We will have the full week's wrap tonight on Closing Price.
That's it on Open Bid for today, Friday, June 26. Closing Price wraps a wild week this evening at 5 PM Eastern.
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I'm Sharon, from ALT/FNDATA. I'll talk with you in the next episode.
